Effects of consumer cohorts and age on meat expenditures in the United States

Meat demand is likely influenced by the birth cohort and age of the individual. In this study, we examine the demand for beef, pork, poultry, and other meat in the United States using the 1984–2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey and the almost ideal demand system with the incorporation of age, period, and cohort (APC) effects. We find that the model with APC effects performs better than the models without APC effects. The results indicate that cohorts born in earlier time periods are expected to purchase significantly less poultry compared to cohorts born in later time periods, when they are measured at the same age. Over the life cycle, purchase of poultry is expected to increase with age while the opposite is true for red meat. We also find that the own-price elasticity for beef is highest among the products examined, while the own-price elasticity for other meat is lowest and the inclusion of APC effects increases the absolute value of the own-price elasticities for beef, pork, and poultry, but reduces the own-price elasticity for other meat. Our forecasts indicate that the aggregate poultry purchase will continue to increase until 2022, while the aggregate purchase of red meat will slightly increase until 2017, but will either decrease or stay at same level from year 2017 to 2022.     

Speculative dynamics and price behavior in the Shanghai Stock Exchange

This article examines the extent to which the trading behavior of heterogeneous investors manifests in stock price changes of asset portfolios which constitute the Shanghai Stock Exchange. There are three major findings that materialize. Firstly, reliable statistical evidence of a negative relation between the conditional first and second moments of the return distributions of stock prices lends support to the volatility feedback effect. Secondly, ‘feedback’, or momentum-type investors, are not present in this market as is often detected from the daily price changes of other industrialized markets. Finally, trade volume as a proxy for ‘information-driven’ trading suggests that such investors play a statistically significant role in stock price movements. Parameter estimates from this latter group of investors imply that a rise in stock prices from a high volume trading day is more likely than a rise resulting from a low volume trading day.     

Fixed costs and long-lived investments

Fixed costs models are difficult to analyze because they feature non-degenerate, time-varying distributions of capital across firms. If investments are sufficiently long-lived however then the cross-sectional distribution of capital holdings has virtually no bearing on the equilibrium and the aggregate behavior of fixed-cost models is essentially identical to neoclassical models. The findings are due to a near infinite elasticity of investment timing for long-lived investments – a feature shared by fixed-cost models and neoclassical models. “Irrelevance results” found in numerical studies of fixed-cost models are not parametric special cases but instead are fundamental properties of models with long-lived investment goods.     

城镇化与工业化互动发展的协调性与驱动力研究——来自四川省21个市州的经验证据

城镇化与工业化互动协调发展是城乡经济发展的一个主要问题。在构建新型城镇化和新型工业化评价指标体系的基础上,采用四川省21个市州2007—2012年相关数据,运用“协调度—协调发展度模型”和灰色系统模型 GM（1,N）,对城镇化与工业化互动发展的协调性进行评价,并揭示其内在驱动力,结果表明：四川省城镇化与工业化互动发展的协调度与协调发展度处于不断提高的过程中,21个市州工业化发展对城镇化与工业化互动协调发展均起着促进作用,但经济发展水平极高和极低市州的城镇化发展对城镇化与工业化互动协调发展具有制约作用。因此,应以工业化带动城镇化发展,制定差别化的城镇化与工业化互动发展政策,全面深化制度改革,形成城镇化与工业化互动协调发展的良性机制。     

中国公共征信的运营、问题及对策

当前,我国公共征信建设主要在国家与地方两个层面展开,中国人民银行和商务部实质上构成了国家层面公共征信建设的主体,各省区市以社会信用体系建设为依托开展了区域性公共征信建设。这使得我国公共征信形成条块分割与局部垄断共存的碎片化局面,在一定程度上限制了公共征信发展的空间。今后,应通过信用立法、制定相关政策等,解决我国公共征信建设中存在的问题。     

When trade hurts: Consumption indivisibilities and labor market distortions

We present a simple model where complementarities between wages and demand due to factor market distortions can make a transition economy worse off from trade. Prior to trade, a virtuous circle prevails: high wages in industry support a high demand for indivisible industrial goods, which in turn supports high wages. However, factor market distortions in the transition economy create a comparative disadvantage in industry. Opening up to trade results in the import of indivisibles and a fall in manufacturing wages, breaking this virtuous circle. Consequently, trade liberalization without structural reform can have serious adverse effects in a transition economy.     

基于相关与偏相关分析的城市居民休闲度假市场开发研究——以南京为例

我国旅游业正向休闲度假型转变。运用相关分析与偏相关分析方法,以南京为例探析城市居民休闲度假旅游需求。研究发现偏爱休闲度假的居民由于地位与收入的不同在旅游资源喜好、旅游活动偏好、购买行为、信息来源渠道、出游方式等方面与一般居民有着明显差异。因此,休闲旅游目标市场的定位应在高学历、中高收入阶层,旅游资源的开发应优先考虑湖泊水滨、森林山地,产品开发应注意项目与资源的耦合且促销渠道应以网络为主,兼顾传统媒介。     

较发达地区农户参与农信社小额信贷程度的影响因素分析——基于苏北金湖农户“直接意愿”调查的实证检验

结合农户借贷行为特征,采用江苏省金湖县273个农户实地调查数据,通过基于"直接意愿调查法"的二元Probit模型,从需求和供给两方面实证分析中国较发达地区农户小额信用贷款的现状及影响因素,结果显示,外出务工人数、农村家庭大额非日常支出、农户人际关系的强弱和正规社会资本资源显著影响农户小额信贷的需求,而非农收入比重、农户兼业类型及地区人均贷款显著影响农户获得小额信贷的概率。因此,重视和挖掘农户潜在信贷需求,改进信贷产品服务和质量,满足农户多样化的资金需求,才是实现农村小额信贷的可持续发展之道。     

对国内旅游者的旅游商品需求差异性研究--以西安市旅游商品市场为例

文章从旅游商品在旅游产业发展中的重要地位出发，通过对近年来国内外学者对旅游商品市场的研究回顾，结合我国旅游商品业发展中存在的实际问题，以西安旅游商品市场为例，对国内旅游者的旅游商品需求进行问卷调查。经过问卷整理、筛选和统计分析，对旅游者的旅游商品需求差异性进行假设检验；并在此实证研究的基础上。对西安旅游商品业的发展提出相应的对策建议。     

透视旅游专业大学生供需错位现象——兼论饭店管理专业本科教学模式改革

饭店行业对员工需求标准与旅游高校对学生培养规格的不同,大学生对未来理性追求和对现实感性认识间存在的矛盾,导致了旅游/饭店专业大学生的“供需错位”。本科“饭店管理”应脱离“旅游管理”的模式设计课程;其“应用性”的特点要求它不仅要在教学中理论联系实际、培养学生情商,还要根据高等教育大众化的特点,重新定位培养层次。